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The Partner and the Pro Big Race Analysis

February 11, 2010 · By · Share

In advance of Middle of the Nite running in this weekend's Grade 3 Sam Davis Stakes, the West Point team issued a race analysis.  One of our partners, Nick Cammarano, also offered commentary.  Here are two takes on this weekend's race:

WPT's Analysis:
#1 Rule -
The likely favorite in the race exploded when making two starts at Delta Downs.  He won the Delta Jackpot last year and already has enough graded stakes earnings to make the Kentucky Derby.  He does his best running on the front end, and there is plenty of speed in the race.

#2 Schoolyard Dreams - Has tactical speed, but his figures are a little light.  Trainer Derek Ryan adds blinkers and look at those works since his last race.  It looks like the hood has sharpened him up.  Look out Rule, I think you have a pace factor on your outside.

#3 Tristen's Mambo - Simply looks overmatched.  Would need a big jump forward.

#4 Middle of the Nite - We make our second start off a three-month layoff.  Our numbers pattern is good with a jump in each race.  The better numbers have come the longer we have stretched him out.  He is bred to go two turns.  He has struggled getting out of the gate, but that should be less of an issue going two turns.  If the speed duel inside materializes, then we'd like to sit just off that.  We expect to get first run on the closers.  This really is a perfect spot for him, and we are looking at this as a race to push Middle of the Nite down the Derby trail.

#5 Silver Craft - Was well beaten in the local prep for this race.  Distance a concern for him.  Will really need to pick up his feet.

#6 Uptowncharlybrown - Local favorite has romped in both career races.  The question is, what has he faced? Well, he's beaten whatever he's faced easily.  He does not have classic two turn breeding, but there is nothing to dislike about him.  I think he might be a closing sprinter, but he could also be the real deal.  We'll see.

#7 African Moon - On paper he does not look fast enough.  Lost an allowance to Schoolyard Dreams here last time.  Would surprise.

Nick's Analysis:
1.RULE - clearly will be the M/L favorite, won his last 3. Last one a Grade 3 at 1 1/16 in the slop.  Speed figures are by far the highest of all entered, well rested and workouts indicate he is ready to go for 4 in a row.

2.SCHOOLYARD DREAMS - making his 4th start after a recent Allowance win on this track. Has not shown much in the way of speed figures, would only play at a price, deep in the exotics.

3.TRISTAN'S MOMBO - just broke his maiden on his third try on 1/22 at Tampa going 1 1/16. Not sure why they are thinking of wheeling him back in 3 weeks into a Grade 3, but what do I know. Does not show much early speed and his overall speed figures are not impressive. Long shot in this group.

4.MIDDLE OF THE NITE - won against a strong MSW field, but that was last Oct. Came back in a very tough Allowance at GP finishing a strong third to Eskenderya after breaking dead last. Improving speed figures give him a chance if he can go the distance and avoids gate/break issues.

5.SILVER CRAFT - came in 4th to Uptowncharliebrown by 9 lengths in the Pasco. Have no idea why they entered him in this spot. Does not look like he can go the distance. Recent works have been very strong, so I guess the connections feel like they need to give him a shot with the big boys. Could surprise, but I doubt it.

6.UPTOWNCHARLIEBROWN  - huge home town favorite and he will likely go off at a very low number. Won a stakes at this track going 7 f last time out and apparently has the speed to be a factor here. Question is can he go the distance. I will play him in all my exotics, but not on top.

7.AFRICAN MOON - ran a decent second to Schoolyard dreams last out, but speed figures are just not there. Bred to go long, so distance not a problem, only chance he has if the race completely breaks down and he comes from dead last. Strong work tab since his last race. No chance.

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